Data & methodology
Glossary
Plain definitions for the meteorological and market terms used throughout the dashboard and these docs.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| METAR | A standardised aerodrome weather report issued by airports, typically hourly. The dashboard's “actual” observations come from METAR. |
| ICAO code | The four-letter airport identifier (e.g. EGLC for London City). Airports in the data are keyed by ICAO. |
| Settlement airport | The single weather station whose official reading decides a market's outcome. |
| Bucket | One temperature range that a market can resolve to, e.g. “22°C” or “23°C or higher”. |
| Leading bucket | The bucket the market currently prices as most likely. |
| Exceedance percentile | The temperature at which a given probability of being exceeded holds (P5…P95). P50 is the median forecast. |
| Predictability | meteoblue's 0–100 measure of how unlikely the day's forecast is to change materially. |
| Ensemble | A set of model runs (here GFS + ECMWF members) whose spread expresses forecast uncertainty. |
| Lead time | How far ahead a forecast is made — e.g. a 3-day-out forecast has a 3-day lead. |
| Liquidity | Resting order depth in a market; higher means easier to trade at scale. |
| Volume | Total amount traded in a market. |
| USDC | The US-dollar stablecoin Polymarket markets are denominated in. |
| CLOB | Central Limit Order Book — Polymarket's order-matching system; the source of live bid/ask depth. |
| Gamma API | Polymarket's public API for events and markets, queried here with the weather tag. |
| Yes / Bid / Ask | For a bucket: its implied probability, the best buy price, and the best sell price. |
| Peak hour | The hour of the resolution day at which the model expects the temperature to peak (from P50). |
Forecasting dashboard documentation · Meteo Bulgaria EOOD · 2026