Market detail panel
Click any market row to open the detail panel: the hourly forecast, live observations, the full set of buckets, exceedance probabilities, and the order book.
Selecting a row expands a detail view built from four panels. Together they let you compare what the model expects, what has actually been observed, and what the market is pricing.
Hourly forecast
An SVG chart of the model's hourly temperature trace for the resolution day, with the consensus peak hour marked. The panel header names the city, airport and date. This is the shape behind a single “daily high” number — useful for seeing when in the day the peak is expected and how sharp it is.
Live METAR observations
A multi-source chart of recent real observations for the airport, drawn from the METAR feed (and a NOAA secondary feed where configured). Each source is plotted as its own series; clicking a reading pins a callout with its exact value and time. Readings older than about 90 minutes are flagged as stale. For cities without an observation pipeline the panel shows that no settlement data is available.
Market
The full ladder of outcome buckets for the market, each with its Yes probability and the current Bid / Ask. This is the expanded version of the single leading bucket shown in the table, so you can see the whole distribution the crowd is pricing.
Exceedance probabilities
A table of percentiles — P5, P10, … through P95 — giving the temperature at which each exceedance probability holds for the day. P50 is the median (the 50/50 forecast value) and sets the consensus peak hour used elsewhere. The colouring encodes the tail:
- Lower percentiles (P5, P10…) sit in the warm upper tail and are tinted red.
- Higher percentiles (…P90, P95) sit in the cooler lower tail and are tinted blue.
Lining the market buckets up against these percentiles shows where the forecast puts real probability versus where the market is paying out.
Order book
For a clicked bucket, the panel shows live order-book depth — Asks and Bids with their sizes — pulled from the Polymarket CLOB and refreshed every 2 seconds. A direct link out to the market on Polymarket is provided.