Forecasting · documentation
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Using the dashboard

The markets table

The main table lists one row per market. Here is what each column means and how the colours and ordering work.

Columns

ColumnMeaning
#Row index in the current view.
CityFlag and city name. The market resolves against that city's settlement airport.
EndsWhen the market closes / resolves, shown relative to now.
LiquidityResting order depth in the market, in USDC — a rough measure of tradability.
Leading bucketThe temperature bucket the market currently prices as most likely (highest Yes), with that probability.
ActualThe latest live METAR observation for the airport, when available. This is a secondary signal, not the settlement value, and is sparse for some cities.

Leading bucket

Polymarket temperature markets split the outcome into ranges — for example “21°C”, “22°C”, or “23°C or higher”. The leading bucket is whichever range the order book currently assigns the highest probability. Reading it next to the model temperature and the live actual is the quick way to see whether the crowd and the forecast agree.

Predictability colours

Several places show a meteoblue predictability figure — the percentage chance the day's forecast will not change materially before it resolves. It is colour-tiered:

high — 70% and above  medium — 40–69%  low — below 40%

Higher predictability means the forecast is more settled; low predictability flags days where the models still disagree and the market may move.

Sorting

Filtering

The continent and city tabs do the broad slicing. On top of those, the Filter box matches text, Ends within and On date constrain the resolution time, and hide zero-liq (on by default) removes markets with no order depth. The summary stat cards always reflect the filtered set, not the whole universe.

Reading tip The actuals column is filled from METAR and can lag or be missing; never read it as the settled outcome. Settlement uses the market's own designated source. See Forecast methodology.
Forecasting dashboard documentation · Meteo Bulgaria EOOD · 2026